Multifamily owners across Los Angeles County are feeling it: leasing has gotten more competitive in certain pockets, expenses remain elevated, and buyers are underwriting tougher than they were during the peak.
What many owners miss is the second-order effect:
When market value softens, your property tax assessment typically does not “self-correct.” If your enrolled value is still anchored to stronger pricing assumptions, you may be paying taxes on value the market won’t support today.
This market update uses late-2025 LA County data and shows how that repricing can translate into Prop 8 (Decline-in-Value) opportunities—and real dollars back to your bottom line.
1) What the latest LA County market data is saying
A) Pricing: mid-$350K per unit, trending flat-to-down
Colliers’ Greater Los Angeles Multifamily Research Report (Q4 2025) reported the average price per unit ended Q4 at $352,501, a 1% year-over-year decline.¹
Matthews’ Los Angeles, CA Multifamily Market Report (Q4 2025) similarly pegged pricing at ~$355K per unit for the quarter.²
What that means in plain English: even if your building is operating fine, market pricing has cooled compared to the peak—especially in segments where investors perceive higher risk, heavier capex, or thinner margins.
B) Transaction volume: down meaningfully (a classic “repricing” signal)
Colliers reports year-to-date 2025 sales volume of $6.3B, down 21% year-over-year.¹
Lower volume is often a sign of disagreement between buyers and sellers on value—exactly what you see when rates and return requirements reset.
C) Occupancy & leasing: softening at the margin
CBRE’s Los Angeles Multifamily Figures Q4 2025 reports occupancy closed Q4 2025 at 95.2%, down 0.4% from Q3 2025.³
Meanwhile, Kidder Mathews’ Los Angeles Multifamily Market Report (Q4 2025) describes vacancy trending upward, rental rates flat, prices per unit declining slightly, and cap rates continuing to rise.⁴
Why you should care: small moves in occupancy, concessions, and renewal spreads can hit NOI. And in today’s market, buyers are paying less for each dollar of NOI than they did in the peak.
D) Supply: deliveries remain a real factor in many nodes
Colliers reports 14,563 units delivered in 2025 (a 17% year-over-year increase) and 70,594 units delivered since Q4 2020 in Los Angeles County.¹
More supply doesn’t mean “doom,” but it does mean increased competition in submarkets seeing concentrated deliveries—often showing up as concessions, slower lease-up, and softer effective rent, which buyers price into value.
2) Why multifamily values can decline even if your operations look “stable”
Multifamily pricing is driven by two big levers:
- NOI (income minus expenses)
- Investor yield requirements (cap rates / overall rates / return thresholds)
When investors demand higher yields—often due to higher interest rates, risk premiums, or tighter underwriting—value must come down unless NOI rises enough to offset it.
Kidder Mathews explicitly flags cap rates continuing to rise in LA as of Q4 2025.⁴ And Matthews’ Q4 2025 LA snapshot shows cap rates around 5.0% in their tracked sales environment.²
That’s why owners can see “rents roughly flat” while values still reprice.
3) Why your LA County property tax bill doesn’t automatically drop when the market does
In LA County, your property tax bill is made up of multiple components. The Auditor-Controller explains that the bill is comprised of taxes, debt service, and direct assessments—and that taxes consist of a 1% rate plus voter-approved debt (with direct assessments being property-specific items).⁵
Translation: even if market value is down, your tax bill won’t automatically re-base to market value unless the assessed value is reduced.
4) The opportunity: Prop 8 Decline-in-Value reductions (and potential refunds)
If your property’s current market value is below the enrolled assessed value as of the lien date, you may qualify for a temporary reduction under Proposition 8.
In a market environment where:
- price per unit is in the mid-$350Ks and trending flat-to-down,¹²
- sales volume is down materially,¹
- and reports describe cap rates rising,⁴
…many multifamily assets—especially those with higher operating expense growth, concessions, or capex—can be over-assessed relative to market.
5) “What could I actually save?” Realistic LA County savings examples
Important: tax rates vary by location and voter-approved debt, so the cleanest estimate is to use your bill’s effective rate:
Effective rate = Total tax (excluding special items you want to hold constant) ÷ Assessed value
However, to make this concrete, below are examples using a reasonable LA County “all-in” effective tax rate range of ~1.10% to 1.25%, based on the Auditor-Controller’s description of 1% + voter-approved debt (plus acknowledging many parcels carry more than 1% once debt is included).⁵
(Use your actual bill for exact savings.)
Example 1: 20-unit building — modest repricing
- Enrolled assessed value: $6,000,000
- Supportable Prop 8 value: $5,400,000 (10% decline)
- Reduction: $600,000
Estimated annual savings:
- $600,000 × 1.10% = $6,600/year
- $600,000 × 1.25% = $7,500/year
Why this is realistic: Q4 2025 pricing and volume trends support “cooler” valuations, especially for assets with rising expenses or concessions.¹⁴
Example 2: 60-unit building — repricing from cap-rate expansion + expenses
- Enrolled assessed value: $18,000,000
- Supportable Prop 8 value: $15,750,000 (12.5% decline)
- Reduction: $2,250,000
Estimated annual savings:
- $2,250,000 × 1.10% = $24,750/year
- $2,250,000 × 1.25% = $28,125/year
Where this shows up: when NOI is pressured by insurance/repairs/payroll and buyers require a higher yield (cap rates rising).⁴
Example 3: 150-unit building — meaningful repricing to today’s underwriting
- Enrolled assessed value: $45,000,000
- Supportable Prop 8 value: $38,250,000 (15% decline)
- Reduction: $6,750,000
Estimated annual savings:
- $6,750,000 × 1.10% = $74,250/year
- $6,750,000 × 1.25% = $84,375/year
This is the kind of scenario that can materially improve NOI without changing operations—because it’s simply correcting the taxable value to match the current market.
6) You run the property. We run the appeal.
A real Prop 8 case isn’t a form—it’s a process:
- building market support (sales and/or income approach),
- organizing evidence,
- meeting county deadlines,
- handling review meetings,
- preparing for a hearing if needed.
AOPTA The Property Tax Experts does that heavy lifting so you can stay focused on running the asset.
Contingency-based
We work on contingency.
If we don’t save you money, you don’t pay.
Free consultation for Los Angeles County multifamily owners
If you want a fast “worth it?” check, we typically start with:
- property address + APN/AIN
- current assessed value
- unit count / year built / renovation history
- income & expense snapshot (T-12 ideal)
- any recent appraisal, broker opinion, or offers (if available)
We’ll tell you whether the LA market data and your property’s actual numbers support a decline-in-value—and the best path to pursue it.
AOPTA The Property Tax Experts
1741 Eastlake Pkwy #102 PMB 330, Chula Vista, CA 91914
anthony@aopta.com | 310-425-0060
Annotations (Sources)
- Colliers — Greater Los Angeles Multifamily Research Report 2025 Q4 (avg price/unit $352,501; YTD sales volume $6.3B down 21%; deliveries 14,563 in 2025; 70,594 since Q4 2020).
- Matthews — Los Angeles, CA Multifamily Market Report Q4 2025 (quarterly sales volume ~$2.0B; pricing ~$355K/unit; cap rates ~5.0%; forecast <5,200 deliveries in 2026).
- CBRE — Los Angeles Multifamily Figures Q4 2025 (occupancy 95.2%; down 0.4% from Q3 2025).
- Kidder Mathews — Los Angeles Multifamily Market Report 4th Quarter 2025 (vacancy trending up; rents flat; prices per unit declining slightly; cap rates rising).
- LA County Auditor-Controller FAQ — explains the bill components and that taxes consist of a 1% rate + voter approved debt, with direct assessments being property specific.